As the London Plan consultation is published, we write A Letter to London

It’s not a housebuilding crisis — it’s an affordability emergency. As the Mayor publishes the May 2025 London Plan consultation, we publish A Letter to London

Dear London,

We’ve been thinking a lot at CPRE London about how we all talk about London’s housing crisis because, to us, the dominant narrative just doesn’t add up.

We’re being told it’s all about not having enough homes and needing to build more. That if we just build more, prices will come down and the crisis will be solved. That the planning system is at the root of all the problems and it needs to be ripped up.

But the facts point in a very different direction.

• Between 2013 and 2023, London’s population grew by 6%. The number of homes grew by 11% in the same period. And yet, house prices rose by 68% and private rents by nearly 65%. So, we’re building faster than the population is growing, and homes are still getting further out of reach.
• 300,000 homes in London have planning permission but haven’t been built. That’s a 5 to 10 year supply of planning permissions and there are many more in the pipeline. The planning system is working fine.

At the same time, right now:

• Over 183,000 people in London are homeless and living in temporary accommodation, including nearly 90,000 children – that’s 1 in every 20 children.
• Councils are spending £114 million a month just trying to manage the fallout.
• 87,000 homes are not primary residences; they’re long-term empty or second homes.
• It would take over 100 years to clear family social housing waiting lists in some areas.
• And only 1,148 new social rented homes are built each year.

This isn’t a housebuilding crisis. It’s an affordability emergency.

And even if we did ramp up housebuilding? According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, even with major planning reforms: “More housebuilding will increase the housing stock by just 0.5% by 2029-2030 and only reduce the average house price by around 0.8-0.9%.” (See end note.)

That’s the government’s own forecast – not ours.

Meanwhile, the human impact is visible everywhere, schools are closing, particularly in Inner London, as families are priced out. There are knock-on effects across the labour market as key workers are forced to leave London. And for the economy as disposable income is squeezed more and more.

We need to be clear: building more homes, especially high-cost ones on Green Belt land, won’t solve this: that is not a housing strategy. It’s a set of policies which accommodate housebuilders’ lobbying requests.

What our city and our country needs is a 20-year housing strategy focussed on the many faceted problems facing the various housing sectors. The strategy needs to tackle funding for social housing, regulation and control of rents in the Private Rented Sector, derelict and empty properties, unsafe living conditions and, ultimately, it needs to focus on housing as a safe and secure roof over heads, not something purchased to secure a return on investment.

We have written about why our Green Belt is so important to our city in a climate and nature crisis; the 2025 Homes for Everyone campaign, supported by Chris Packham, also stresses that trashing nature, and building on productive agricultural land, is not the answer. You can also read our recent article Ten housing crisis myths and look through our presentation Facts & Figures on London’s Housing Crisis March 2025.

Individuals, charities and journalists are now challenging the reasoning behind the government’s current policies, focussed on ripping up a planning system which is not in fact broken.

If you’re in a position to do so, please challenge the ‘housebuilding’ narrative by sharing the facts, asking questions, writing to your MP, or pushing back where needed. If you’d like to discuss this or ask questions, we’d be delighted to meet with you or we can send some resources or key stats if helpful.

Thank you.
Alice Roberts, Head of Campaigns
Grace Harrison-Porter, Volunteer
CPRE London

ENDNOTE

Office for Budget Responsibility report Economic & Fiscal Outlook, March 2025 – relevant paras:

• “We judge that the planning reforms incorporated in the revised NPPF will increase net additions by 170,000 in total across the forecast period. This is equivalent to a 0.5 per cent increase in the housing stock in 2029-30.” (2.58, 2^nd bullet)
• “We expect the 0.5 per cent increase in the housing stock as a result of the planning reforms will reduce the average house price by around 0.8 per cent in 2029.” (2.62)
• “While this would represent a significant acceleration in the pace of housebuilding, it would amount to a modest 0.5 per cent increase to the UK housing stock of over 32 million by the end of the decade.”(3.37)
• “We judge that the 0.5 per cent increase in housing supply will lead to a small reduction in house prices relative to our pre-measures baseline, reducing the average house price by around 0.9 per cent by 2029-30, consistent with the range of external evidence on the elasticity of house prices relative to changes in the housing stock. While there may be a reduction in the (mix-adjusted) average house price recorded by the ONS given the increase in housing supply, we would also expect some upward pressure on the average transacted house price, as new builds typically transact at a higher price than the existing stock.” (3.42)